Let's be real - the Dallas Mavericks have not had a good season. Missing the playoffs after the highly controversial trade that shall not be named, the team needed a miracle to get back on their feet for the next season.
And a miracle did happen!
With only a 1.8% percent chance, the Mavericks snagged the #1 pick for the 2025 NBA Draft. Beating out teams such as the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards, both of which had a 14% chance to take the #1 pick, the incident has been met with a resounding sentiment from fans: "the draft is rigged."
A lottery system for a sports draft isn't common. Two leagues sharing a similar foundation are the WWE and the NHL, and even they go about it in a completely different way.
Why does the NBA conduct their lottery like this? What do other leagues do so different? And is the NBA Draft really rigged, or did Lady Luck strike once again?
The NBA Draft and Tanking
The NBA Draft includes all of the teams. However, the top 14 picks are specifically reserved for the teams that don't make it into the playoffs. These teams are then entered into a lottery system to determine who gets first pick, second pick, etc.
From here, each team is assigned a percentage based on their win percentage throughout the regular season. This is based off assigning number combinations that correspond to each team using ping-pong balls. A thousand of balls are then placed into a lottery machine to randomly pick one of them for each pick.
Prior to 2019, the worst team would have a 25% chance to get the first pick - if they don't get it, they would be guaranteed a top 4 pick. Now, the top three worst teams have an equal chance of getting the #1 pick (14%), and the worst team is guaranteed a fifth pick or higher.
This is to counteract a phenomenon known as "tanking," where a team intentionally throws games to get top draft picks, essentially banking on the future. One of the most famous examples of this was Sam Hinkie's strategy as former General Manager for the Philadelphia 76ers. Starting in 2013, using this strategy coined as "The Process,"
the 76ers tied NBA records for the most consecutive losses. They did this by drafting injured players, sitting out star ones, and trading players for picks in the hopes of drafting the best of the best. After the 2015 draft, however, Hinkie was driven out of office for picking Jahlil Okafor - a top ten player, but was irrespective to the positions the 76ers actually needed, according to sports writer Sam Alpher.
Beginning in October 2016, Joel Embiid, who was drafted during "The Process," would make his debut and average 20.2 points a game whilst dealing with injuries. This was just a sign of what was to come, as the 76ers would finish 52-30 in 2017, signing Markelle Fultz and Jimmy Butler, and nearly making it to the NBA finals in the 2018-2019 season. This peak did not last long, however, as Fultz ultimately did not reach the same star status as fellow 2017 NBA Draft top picks Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball, while Embiid's injuries caught up to him and Butler was traded to the Miami Heat.
A lottery system is meant to discourage tanking. In the NHL, this system works swimmingly as some teams that have tried tanking end up drafting talent that don't translate well - the Arizona Coyotes in particular ended up losing so hard that they had to relocate to Utah. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. So, Nothing was Actually Solved
Despite the complex lottery format, a policy requiring lottery teams not to sit out their star players, and even a play-in tournament so teams have an extra chance to get into the playoffs, tanking is still a problem in the NBA.
This March, the match between the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors saw the Jazz play all of their rookies, bench their star forward Lauri Markkanen in the second half (after the Jazz were just fined for this, mind you), and ultimately lose their eighth consecutive home game. The way they got around the rules? Benching their stars in the most clutch moments of the game.
These rules don't solve the crux of the problem. ESPN reports that, over the past 45 years, only five NBA champion teams were led by a player that was picked outside the top seven draft spots. The hype around rookies drives teams, often managed by bona-fide businesspeople, to intentionally tank to have a shot at the first couple spots of the draft. They're willing to take the fines if it means coming out richer than before. Leveling the Field
We then arrive at today. There is definitely a chance that the Mavericks simply had a very positive horoscope the night before, but the sentiment is just the same as tanking. How do you get away with trading Luka Doncic, a 25-year-old NBA all-star player, for Anthony Davis, a 31-year-old veteran past his athletic prime years - and get rewarded for it?
For some fans, the Luka Doncic trade was a disheartening loss to the Mavericks team. Pictured: Doncic fan at a basketball game. Source: Niklas Du
So long as the odds exist, teams will gladly bury themselves six feet under to arrive twelve feet above everyone else. And as restrictions mount within the NBA, teams can resort to more underhanded tactics to profit off the lottery. It can create an environment of tampering with games and inducing players to tank. Meanwhile, the teams that actually need help and are actually trying (I'm looking at you, Hornets) lose out on receiving a draft pick time & time again.
All teams sign to the league agreeing to its rules. Yet, there are limits as to how the NBA can limit these teams' ability to trade and throw games. Each team is considered a separate business entity that, while having to subscribe to the rules of the league, is still a business that is allowed to make its own decisions. The collective bargaining agreement for the NBA protects players, but rarely is a player immune to trades or being benched for "tactical reasons."
As always, it leads back to the fans, who have to watch these games unfold; the game decided before they even walk through the stadium doors.
Removing the incentives for losing by flattening the odds further would reduce the benefits of losing games for a high draft pick. Going further, giving the top five worst teams a chance at the first draft pick, and no other team, would prevent teams with low probabilities from suddenly stealing the first pick. With flattened odds, it also gives five teams much better chances to take home a first draft pick. As sports journalist Zack Roberts explains, this doesn't stop a team from aiming to lose, but it at least ruins the point of shooting for the worst NBA records of all time.
The alternative is to remove the lottery system. Yet, despite it failing to stop tanking, the NBA is reluctant to do away with it, evidenced by their attempts to reform it in recent years.
Thus, the NBA will continue to dance with Lady Luck, but perhaps this dance can be a coordinated one. With tanking still prevalent, the current system is inefficient at the very thing it set out to do. A small chance is not a non-zero one, and it could end with a team that wasn't suffering to begin with to dominate the following season while the worst get worse. Reducing the odds further won't bring any justice either, influencing teams to tank more than ever. If the playing field is leveled, the NBA Draft can still be an exciting time to look forward to without it looming over the decisions of GMs. Maybe it will finally save the Hornets. Who knows?
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